The Metagame Check
with Samuel Wells
Hello once again everyone! I am Samuel Wells, bringing you your weekly metagame check.
With the format winding down, you would think that the format has been solved. Or that anyone could predict the decks that are going to top 8 on any given weekend.
SCG Worcester broke this mold in a major way. When we saw 6 monoblue devotion decks make the top 16, including a one making it all the way to the finals piloted by Reid Duke. We haven’t seen success like this for monoblue since early in its existence. So that leads to the question, what has changed to make monoblue the deck to beat once again? Let’s check out Duke’s list...
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=69753
All in all, a stock monoblue list. There are few things that stand out as different when looking over the list. So what makes this deck so competitive now. What are the small changes to that let Duke, along with a large section of the field, find success with this deck. I want to point to three cards that I see as key changes in this deck that made the difference for Duke on his run to the finals. These three cards are Domestication, Hypnotic Siren, and Nightveil Specter.
All of these cards have seen play in monoblue lists over the course of its existence. Though the choice to run them main deck and in the numbers that they were played are what set Duke’s list apart and why it stands out to me.
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=69753
All in all, a stock monoblue list. There are few things that stand out as different when looking over the list. So what makes this deck so competitive now. What are the small changes to that let Duke, along with a large section of the field, find success with this deck. I want to point to three cards that I see as key changes in this deck that made the difference for Duke on his run to the finals. These three cards are Domestication, Hypnotic Siren, and Nightveil Specter.
All of these cards have seen play in monoblue lists over the course of its existence. Though the choice to run them main deck and in the numbers that they were played are what set Duke’s list apart and why it stands out to me.
The cards that I see as the biggest change to the deck are the 2 main deck Domestication. Most people have been running Domestication out of the sideboard for quite a while, but I really like the transition to the main deck. It was sided in against decks with opposing Specters and Courser of Kruphix. Though when most of standard lists have those cards, Domestication becomes very appealing maindeck. In almost every match up there is some level of utility that Domestication provides. It is definitely a live draw in the main deck and the upside greatly outweighs the negatives.
The second card that hasn’t necessarily received the love that is deserves is Hypnotic Siren. A running question for monoblue players have been “Should I run the 9th one drop flyer and what should that flyer be?” It is not weird to see the usual suspects in the creature slots and the rest of the slots being dedicated for cards like Rapid Hybridization or Cyclonic Rift. I really like Siren, though. She is good on turn one, just letting you curve out and boost devotion. But unlike other one drops, Siren is good late game when you're flooded, and can utilize its ability. Cloudfin Raptor and Judge’s Familiar have a shelf life of relevance, but Siren doesn't, when a game goes late, she just turns into an impressive draw. It is absolutely a blowout and surprisingly easy to reach with a Nykthos in the deck. Other decks have a Galerider Sliver to give Mutavault flying and try to push damage through that way. I do not think this provides any real power to the deck. Monoblue does not struggle with evasion and if the plan is flying mutavaults, the game is already in a poor state.
Finally, the least surprising in the deck, but possibly the most significant is Nightveil Specter. Specter had nearly lost all love from the monoBlack lists, which have become more interested in splashing colors and can’t support the triple black casting cost. This is a big mistake to me, specter is a card that acts as a must answer for a wide range of decks in the format. From seemingly all of the aggressive decks currently being played, to the slow grinding control decks. Specter is able to take over the game without having to commit at all to the board. Despite all this, it still seems weird for me to highlight this card, because it has always been run and will always be run in monoblue, not just because it is good, but because there is no other competing option.
To give an anecdote for the power of Nightveil Specter, in round 1 of Worcester Reid Duke was playing against a monoblack list and landed a specter on turn 3. He attacked once and flipped a pack rat. He was able to cast a pack rat by filtering mana through his Nykthos and was immediately able to take the game over. This happened because he got one turn with a Nightveil Specter. This is something that monoblue normally can’t achieve without Master of Waves on an established board or Thassa getting multiple turns of scry. This explosiveness is key for the success of monoblue moving forward.
Going over the list, the deck still does not seem out of the ordinary, but rather extremely well set up again. Monoblue is in a spot where the midrange courser decks and red aggressive decks are just not able to beat it and its worst matchup, MonoBlack, is still roughly 50/50. MonoBlue looks like it will have one last good run at full strength before rotation comes this fall.
Mono Blue is one of the few decks that has not evolved as the format has grown. It had received tools here and there, but nothing that has re-invented the deck.
Though there seems to me a natural change that could have occurred, but hasn’t for some reason. That is the addition of white to the deck. This splash would add a lot of raw power to the deck and more value from the individual cards being played. I want to see why this change hasn’t happened.
Let’s start by looking at what could be added to the deck if white was being played...
The first card that I thought of here was Ephara, god of the polis. She is a draw engine that requires less effort than Bident of Thassa and seems just as consistent. She also has the added bonus threat of becoming a giant threat that can either hold the fort or beat down when the devotion requirement is met. So that could be an easy trade.
The next card seems equally obvious to me. Detention Sphere gives the deck something it was missing, a removal spell with no downside. Unlike cards like, Cyclonic Rift and Rapid Hybridization, there is not a downside like leaving 3/3 behind or letting the opponent cast the card again next turn. Both of these are tempo plays and are powerful, but don’t just say no, quite like sphere. This may not be vital to the deck, but it is a security blanket that would be appreciated by many a player.
There are other more tech choices, such as Sphinx’s Revelation and Deputy of Acquittals. Sphinx’s Revelation has proven its power and needs to be considered if you are in those colors. Casting it once is strong, casting it again is unbeatable. Why not splash to run the best instant in standard. As for Deputy, he enables a very powerful draw engine pairing with Ephara. He also acts as a Counterspell essentially against spot removal or even board wipes with the ability to protect the key threats in this deck.
So this deck seems to make itself, and could be sleeved up for the next GP. But that leaves the question, why hasn’t it?
It comes down to two very simple answers.
One; the deck is not a deck about the strength of individual cards, but the cards building off of each other and making an unstoppable wall that the opponent can’t beat. Building devotion is vital to the success of the deck. Any time that a card is not building the devotion as effectively as possible, it is impeding the success of the deck.
And two; I already basically stated this before, but the deck cares more about efficiency and tempo than raw power. So being able to hit untapped lands every turn and not struggle to cast cards like Specter are needed for the deck to succeed. This is more important than running powerful cards like Revelation or Detention Sphere. This may change come rotation, but the deck that exists now needs to stay monocolored.
Interesting things to think about, more will certainly develop as the weeks go by.
As always everyone, This has been Samuel Wells, bringing a metagame check.
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The white splash is so awkward it was tried briefly after BnG. Mono Blue can't handle the temples tempo wise nor care about more expensive spells. Sphere seems good until you think about what needs to be sphered and is it worth 3 mana doing so. Additionally depending the matchup if the opponent is hedging against Thassa, Ephara and Sphere are more cards dealt with the same way. The only redeeming factor of Domestication is you are buying a card. It's pretty poor in a number of matchups, but it can be sufficiently awkward for your opponent maybe you mess up their math, maybe you get an extra chump block.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is this format is being increasingly defined by tempo. It's the best way to mitigate Thoughtseize and the absurd overabundance of flexible yet comparatively expensive one for one removal. The mana largely blocked that initially but as that frees up it pushes the format just fast enough that slower decks need to refocus or become obsolete. Under those conditions mono blue is a good choice since it generally wins the onboard aggro matchups being able to critical mass quicker without being all in. Of course if it's a thing maybe black refocuses. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Monsters resurgence shortly after.
The white splash IS certainly awkward. I agree with what you have said. I think U splash white has it's merits in certain situations but, It has been tried extensively before. Perhaps Khans will force MonoU to adapt to UW, though for now I think U splash white is purely a 'surprise' factor.
ReplyDelete